The stupid-hot run continues.We won three of four bets last weekend and pushed - Over 43 thanks to a 27-16 final score in Chicago. Thats now a 16-2-4 heater since Thanksgiving, which is just downright absurd, if were being honest.Ive got a couple of bets and three plays this weekend. Remember, this space isnt the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.Lets go to work.ADVERTISEMENT Michigan Wolverines (-1.5, O/U 45) vs. Alabama Crimson TideIll Trevon Coley Jersey be in the minority here, and thats okay. And obviously, betting against Nick Saban can be a nerve-wracking experience, especially with all the extra time to prepare. It still feels like this undefeated Michigan team is underrated.Blue has multiple NFL dudes on defense so does Bama, of course and I think the lack of profe sional playmakers on the Tide side of the ball will be an i sue. Give Jalen Milroe tons of credit for his in-season improvement, but Michigans defense is a bear. I like their ability to bring pre sure toward the pocket. Its also funny how Michigan gets knocked for a "weak schedule," while Bama laid in the weeds for most of the season in an SEC conference that was far from dominant compared to years past. I also picked Seth DeValve Jersey Alabama against Georgia a month ago, so lets not get anything twisted.If the Wolverines can hit some shots down the field against Bamas impre sive corners, itll allow their run game (2,103 yards and 35 TDs) to operate more efficiently. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy can throw on the run, too.Jim Harbaugh gets a lot of flack for a lack of succe s in the College Football Playoff, but I truly believe this is his best team yet. Im willing to find out if thats enough to beat Alabama.PICK: Michigan ML -125Auburn Tigers (-6.5, O/U 47.5) vs. Maryland Terrapins opted out for Maryland and, naturally, the line moved quite a bit.Auburn went from -2 to -7, and eventually, the buyback came on the Terps at +7.I still dont think the quarterback drop off is that Nick Chubb Jersey large, and Mike Locksley will scheme up ways to move the ball.PICK: Maryland (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, O/U 52)Dallas returns home after two extremely tough road games at and .I was impre sed with the way the Cowboys picked themselves off the mats after the Bills beat them down, but a couple of plays derailed a chance to steal a win in South Beach.Now, Americas Team is back home in the dome against a very overrated defense. Dallas receivers should eat well all day.PICK: Cowboys (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 pointsCincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, O/U 44)I havent bet the Chiefs many times this year because clearly, something aint right with the offense. But at some point, you have to bet an advantageous number.I was willing to lay -7 with the Kansas City D against a backup quarterback, and now I can lay 6.5.Lets take advantage of a cheap number due to Kansas City's recent 1-4-1 against-the-spread run.PICK: Chiefs (-6 Olivier Vernon Jersey .5) to win by more than 6.5 pointsChiefs vs. Bengals in Week 17: Must-win for Kansas City? Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears (-3, O/U 38)We hit with Atlanta last week, and Im going back to the well on Sunday.The Falcons run defense is criminally underrated, and thats what the Bears want to do.Chicago has been playing Jaelen Strong Jersey much better since acquiring , but laying points with this offense is still something I wont do.The Birds are maddening, but Ill take the points.PICK: Falcons (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)2023 Record: (43-31-5, +8.7)Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.